It’s surely a coincidence that the recent market rally occurred during the partial shutdown of the U.S. government
More conventional rally catalysts were the over-sold conditions created by excessive pessimism about growth and a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. Equity valuations had fallen below long-term averages across most markets, and the increase in credit spreads was leading some forecasters to meaningfully raise their expectations of a recession by 2020. The ensuing rally in risk assets has been corroborated by the meaningful narrowing of credit spreads.
Is the bounce back for real?